Asking ten valuation models to agree.
The line is optimistic while live market data gets its shoes on.
Core fundamental models, loan book, revenue yield, staking scarcity, GHO, DCF, and P/Revenue, put AAVE at $220.65 versus today's $74.47 market price. The live market is 66.2% below that core estimate, while the full 9-model median is $204.34 (+174.4% vs market). Models are listed below; every data point and calculation path can be verified.
The headline is not a black box. The largest read-through comes from Aave's loan book, current revenue power, the price-to-fair-value gap, and how many independent models agree.
Active borrowed capital is the earning base behind the loan-book and revenue-yield models. Current utilization is 79.74%.
Borrower-paid flows support the revenue-yield and P/Revenue frameworks. DAO-retained protocol revenue is $124.07M/yr.
The core model median compares with a $74.47 market price, giving +196.30% implied upside.
7 models sit more than 25% above market. The full-model median is $204.34, so outliers remain visible below.
Adjust the assumptions yourself and watch every model reprice in the simulator.
The valuation stack starts with market price, lending activity, revenue power, token supply, and context metrics.
Rows are sorted by reliability weight. Click any model to audit formula, live inputs, assumptions, source status, sensitivity, and confidence tier.
We sort the 9 enabled model fair values from lowest to highest and take the middle value. With an even model count, the median is the average of the two middle models.
Each model receives a reliability tier based on input quality and model risk: high = 3x, medium = 2x, low = 1x. Those weights are used for the weighted average, while the median stays unweighted.